The most popular Yaojingyuan should not be obsesse

2022-07-25
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Yaojingyuan: don't be obsessed with one day. China's automobile industry is far from "stalling"

Yaojingyuan, a special researcher of the Counselor Office of the State Council and former chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed the factors affecting China's current economic situation, such as Sino US trade friction

however, Yaojingyuan pointed out that Sino US trade frictions will not worsen, so there is no need to worry. And called on everyone to grasp the pattern of "change in stability" and "progress in stability". There is no need to worry so much about China's economy. Don't dwell on one day at a time, but look at the long term

the same is true for the Chinese market. It has no "flameout", and there is still room for development. Yaojingyuan believes that the most important thing for the automotive industry next is to change from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. High quality growth needs to be innovative, open, green and people-oriented

the following is the transcript of my speech:

I am very happy to participate in the activity because I am a worker. When I was a young man at the age of 20, I worked as a blacksmith, welder and Secretary of the Youth League Committee. It has been nearly 50 years now. Although I have been displaced in the future, I am full of feelings for industry

now let me talk about China's economy. I know that everyone pays great attention to China's economy. How can we grasp China's economy? Back to the conference on China's economy held by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on October 31. What is the current state of China's economy? The general trend is to make progress while maintaining stability. For example, we can see that our employment situation is basically good, prices are basically stable, the national social situation tends to be stable, and the economic growth rate is still in a reasonable range

on the other hand, we also see that the downward pressure on economic growth is increasing, including industry. In addition, some of our enterprises are facing increasing operational difficulties. Therefore, the Party Central Committee clearly stated that we should now grasp what "change" means. First of all, the situation of China's external economic development has changed

how did the Sino US trade war start

as we all know, the external growth environment of China as a whole is increasingly uncertain. The Sino US trade war ranks first among the uncertainties

the U.S. trade deficit was 566.6 billion last year, of which China was 275.8 billion. In terms of numbers, China is indeed the largest contributor to the U.S. trade deficit, indicating that the lower the shore hardness, the greater. Therefore, trump is mainly aiming at us. So why do China and the United States have such a large trade deficit

basically, the economic structure and development structure of China and the United States are different. China is a developing country. After 40 years of reform and opening up, what was our greatest advantage in the past 40 years? We had a large number of people and a cheap labor force, and China's labor force was hard-working. Therefore, China's reform and opening up began with a large number of labor forces. We attracted investment and processing trade until China became a world factory

what is the problem with the United States? The labor cost in the United States is high. As we all know, when the labor cost in the United States was high, it was more than 20 times that in China, and now it is still more than a dozen times. So, what is the situation when the United States wants to develop labor-intensive industries? We export a large number of labor-intensive products with good quality and low price to the United States, including textiles, clothing, bags, toys, furniture, shoes and other goods with good quality and low price

everyone has a problem when they come to the United States. The United States is made in China everywhere. The Wall Street Journal once published an article. He said that the most basic life of Americans is now made in China. Americans get up to brush their teeth in the morning, wash their towels in China, drive to work, and the car is American, but the radio is made in China. They go to work and drink coffee cups in China, Americans can no longer live without being made in China

20 years ago, I went to the United States. At that time, my son was in middle school. My son especially admired American basketball stars. He asked me to go to the United States to buy him an American basketball. I said it was no problem. When I went to the American shopping mall, I took out the ball and looked at it. There was a line of small characters printed on it. It said that it was made in China. I said I couldn't buy it. Why did I go so far to buy it made in China? I might as well go back to China and ask for an entrepreneur. I changed the shopping mall. I picked up the ball and it was made in China. I told them to take an American one. They said no. now it is all made in China. Later, I thought about it and had no choice. I said, let's buy this ball. Please blow up your breath and I'll take it back from the United States by plane. I went home and gave the ball to my child. I told him, "this ball is made in China, but the gas inside is played in the United States."

what has been brought to the United States by the entry of a large number of Chinese goods of good quality and low price into the United States? As a result, the overall price level in the United States has been lowered by 1-1.5 percentage points. Comrades, do not underestimate this figure. Such a price level will make the life of the American people more enjoyable. So many goods made in China are exported to the United States, and we have received US dollars. Now we have a problem buying things in the United States. What is the problem? We want to buy things in the United States. We always want to buy things we don't have. We can't buy what we already have. What do we need? What we need most is high-tech products, but it is precisely in this regard that Americans restrict us in terms of system and do not sell us. You say we don't buy what he sells, but they don't buy what we buy. As a result, China US trade deficit has arisen

for us, if we want the surplus to bring the US dollar back to China, we will form the national foreign exchange reserve. We all know what the state's foreign exchange reserves do, and a considerable part of them have returned to buy US Treasury bonds in excess of US $1 trillion. China is still the largest creditor of the United States

in other words, it was in the era of Secretary Hu Jintao. When I was in the Counselor's office, our old Xia was also a Sino US friction, and he was also in a public forum. He said that the United States had such an attitude. I suggested that China throw away US Treasury bonds. After Lao Xia said this, a leader talked about Lao Xia in the afternoon. He said that we should not say this in public, and criticized Lao Xia. Later, the next morning, the leader asked Lao Xia again and praised him. Why? He said that President Obama called Secretary Hu Jintao last night and strongly urged China not to sell US Treasury bonds. So you see what Lao Xia said has worked

the trade war will not worsen any more. We don't need to worry about it.

some people suggest that the United States should throw away its treasury bonds and US Treasury bonds in this way. We are the largest creditor, and the US Treasury bonds will depreciate significantly. Of course, China has repeatedly said that it does not want to fight a trade war. There is no win-win situation in a trade war. Will the trade war affect China? Yes

let me give you an example. The permanent magnet in American Motors is Chinese. Now the US government has increased its tariff by 25%, which has reduced the competitiveness of permanent magnet exports to the United States. Obviously, it has an impact, not no impact. However, this trade friction between China and the United States is not fundamentally a problem of deficit and surplus. It is fundamentally a problem. After 40 years of development, China has now ranked second in the world in terms of economic aggregate and first in terms of import and export trade. Trump is worried that his position as the No. 1 in the world will be impacted

if I come to this point, I will tell you a historical lesson: it took 15 years for Japan to become the second largest country in the world. In the 1960s and 1970s, the whole world was Japanese. Japan bought the Locke building in the United States and told the United States: if you don't accept it, if you don't accept it, I will buy the United States. Therefore, the United States worried about Japan's impact on the position of No. 1. It also began to fight a trade war, forced Japan to comply, and made a Hiroshima agreement. Therefore, the Japanese economy has been in a depressed state for more than 20 years

therefore, this time we see that we have a bottom line after the Sino US trade war. What is the bottom line? That is, no one can interfere with and affect China's right to development. We should develop

of course, trade war technically means that you have to have a card. Do we have a card? Let me tell my comrades that we have cards. For example, as you know, last year China produced 19million tons of soybeans, but last year it imported 95million tons. If you put these two figures together, you can see that China still has to import soybeans. The soybeans we import from the United States account for 62% of the U.S. soybean output. What is the concept? Then the technicians will configure a new meter box for the customer and calibrate it? China accounts for 62% of the US soybean production market. Now we raise taxes on it, and it can't get in

in August, I saw an old man, a president of the American Soybean Association in China. I thought the old man was very simple. He told me that he was a farmer leader with a sad face. He said where 62% of the soybeans were sold. The soybeans in the United States grew like those in China. They were planted in April and received in September. He said that he now came to the United States to seek solutions. He said that all the soybeans he planted now went to Washington to appeal. To fight a trade war, it is very important to have alternative products. Instead of entering American soybeans, we will enter South America, Brazil and Argentina. Now some countries in South America are looking forward to a fierce trade war because they want to sell soybeans

as early as the beginning of this year, the central government issued a document to deploy the northeast Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia provinces to expand the soybean planting area, and the central government clearly stated that 300 pieces of land per mu would be subsidized. The ultimate task is to expand the planting area and deal with Sino US trade frictions. In April this year, the three provinces alone expanded the planting area by 23million mu, so every step has been deployed, but it's hard to tell you what cards you play, and you can't let the other party know. Therefore, it is not that there is no deployment, because I now see that the impact of the Sino US trade war is actually less than everyone's psychology. Comrades pay more attention to worrying about the impact of the Sino US trade war

of course, there is uncertainty. As I said when Trump came to power, the characteristic of trump is that he is unreliable. The Wall Street Journal also said that the things he set in the morning can be changed at noon. Turning his face is faster than turning a book. We hope that this matter will be beneficial to the economy of China and the United States and to the trend of world economic development. On the other hand, the Party Central Committee clearly stated that the most important thing now is to do our own things well, including doing a good job in industry. What is it to do our own things well? The most important thing is to transform China's economy from high quantity growth to high-quality development, and promote

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